Haystack Land Company analyzed 5,797 land transactions across 49 Hill Country and Central Texas cities, pulling from five years of listing data and cross-referencing Federal Reserve mortgage rates. The finding most landowners haven’t absorbed: the market peaked in early 2022, and three years later, it hasn’t come back.
Transaction volume for 5-to-91-acre Hill Country land dropped 44.7% from H1 2022 to H2 2025 while asking prices held roughly flat around $30,000 per acre. Mortgage rates more than doubled from 2.94% to 6.39%, explaining 76% of the volume decline. Affordable markets like Comfort and Burnet are still appreciating; premium markets like Fredericksburg (-55%) and Johnson City (-48%) have given back years of gains. In Blanco County, CAD appraisals now sit above market transaction prices.
We pulled 5,797 sold land transactions across 49 Hill Country and Central Texas cities from land listing data, then cross-referenced them with 281,560 county appraisal district parcels across Blanco, Comal, and Guadalupe counties and Federal Reserve economic data going back to February 2021. (Our companion inventory analysis expands this to 7,634 transactions using a three-county, 5-to-15-acre filter.) The picture isn’t pretty. The Hill Country land market peaked in the first half of 2022, and three years later, it hasn’t bounced back.
Not even close.
One important caveat before we get into the numbers: Texas is a non-disclosure state, which means actual sale prices don’t have to be reported publicly. The price figures in this analysis come from land listing data and represent the last listed price at the time of sale, not the final closing price. Of those 5,797 sold transactions, about 15% had no price listed at all, so the pricing analysis draws from roughly 4,900 transactions with reported prices. In a buyer’s market like this one, the real closing numbers are likely lower than last listed. Keep that in mind as you read. If anything, the declines we’re showing may understate what’s happening at the closing table.
How Much Has Hill Country Transaction Volume Dropped?
The most telling indicator isn’t price. It’s how many people are buying. In the first half of 2022, our dataset recorded 814 land sales. By the second half of 2025, that number had fallen to 450. That’s a 44.7% decline.
Half-Year Sales Volume
| Period | Sales |
|---|---|
| H1 2021 | 728 |
| H2 2021 | 769 |
| H1 2022 | 814 |
| H2 2022 | 473 |
| H1 2023 | 517 |
| H2 2023 | 474 |
| H1 2024 | 543 |
| H2 2024 | 451 |
| H1 2025 | 510 |
| H2 2025 | 450 |
Monthly Median Price Per Acre
| Period | Median $/Acre |
|---|---|
| H1 2021 | $23,094 |
| H2 2021 | $26,035 |
| H1 2022 | $29,625 |
| H2 2022 | $30,187 |
| H1 2023 | $32,835 |
| H2 2023 | $30,737 |
| H1 2024 | $29,643 |
| H2 2024 | $31,250 |
| H1 2025 | $32,290 |
| H2 2025 | $30,191 |
This isn’t just us saying it. The Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) independently confirmed that Region 7 transaction counts fell 44.6%, almost exactly matching our listing analysis. And when we ran a correlation against FRED mortgage rate data, it was hard to miss: mortgage rates explain 76% of volume variance (r = -0.87, p = 0.001). Rates doubled from 2.94% to 6.39%, and buyers vanished.
Here’s the weird part, though. Prices haven’t collapsed at the same rate. The monthly median hovers around $30,000/acre, roughly where it’s been since mid-2022. Sellers are holding firm, buyers aren’t biting, and you end up with the inventory pileup we cover in Part 3.
Which Hill Country Cities Have Dropped the Most?
The Hill Country isn’t one market. It’s dozens of them, and they’re not all doing the same thing.
Of the 19 Hill Country cities we tracked (minimum three transactions per year to qualify), 12 are below their peak price. The expensive markets that ran up hardest during 2021-2022 have given back the most. Affordable markets are still appreciating. The correlation between a city’s starting price and its subsequent appreciation is r = -0.43. The more expensive the city was going into the boom, the harder it’s fallen since.
The hardest-hit markets are the ones that attracted the most speculative buying during the pandemic boom:
| Declining Cities | Peak Year | Peak $/ac | 2025 $/ac | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredericksburg | 2022 | $65,408 | $29,324 | -55% |
| Johnson City | 2022 | $74,831 | $38,868 | -48% |
| Canyon Lake | 2023 | $69,307 | $49,259 | -29% |
| Wimberley | 2023 | $85,429 | $63,865 | -25% |
| Dripping Springs | 2023 | $98,490 | $75,384 | -24% |
| Mico | 2022 | $24,157 | $18,633 | -23% |
| Leander | 2023 | $116,531 | $92,007 | -21% |
| Liberty Hill | 2023 | $70,000 | $57,390 | -18% |
| Rising Cities | 2021 $/ac | 2025 $/ac | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comfort | $19,597 | $50,489 | +158% |
| Burnet | $17,090 | $31,982 | +87% |
| Pipe Creek | $20,000 | $35,729 | +79% |
| Boerne | $38,292 | $66,933 | +75% |
| Georgetown | $49,990 | $80,824 | +62% |
| Spring Branch | $29,974 | $42,480 | +42% |
The on-the-ground data backs this up. Mike Starks, a Fredericksburg-area broker, has documented that 26-50 acre tracts in Gillespie County are down 39.6% from peak. Our listing data shows Fredericksburg down 55% overall. Different data sources, same story.
Money rotated out of the premium, speculative markets and into more affordable towns where population growth and employment access support real buying. Comfort went from $19,597/acre to $50,489. Fredericksburg went the other direction. And as we show in our ranchette pricing analysis, the pain isn’t spread evenly across tract sizes either. Small-acreage parcels carry a 2.3x per-acre premium that’s compressing buyer pools even further.
The Inventory Picture
The supply side tells the rest of the story. We calculated months-of-supply across every price band using active listings and annual absorption rates, and the numbers are stark: the Hill Country is sitting on over two years of land inventory at the current selling pace. Premium parcels above $100K per acre face 4+ years of supply.
We break down the full inventory analysis, including which price bands are moving and which are frozen, in Part 3: What 281,000 Parcels and 27 Months of Inventory Tell Sellers.
Are County Appraisal Values Now Above Market in the Hill Country?
County Appraisal Districts (CADs) set the taxable value of your property. During the boom, CAD values lagged behind, which was good for taxpayers. Now the market has pulled back, and CAD values haven’t followed.
In Johnson City, the lines have already crossed. The Blanco CAD median appraisal sits at $42,550/acre. The market, based on 2025 last-listed transaction prices, is $38,868/acre. You’re being taxed 9.5% above what your land would sell for. And remember, the actual closing prices in a buyer’s market like this are likely even lower.
Johnson City: CAD Appraisal vs. Market Value
| Year | CAD Appraisal $/Acre | Last Listed $/Acre |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $15,194 | $44,513 |
| 2022 | $25,000 | $74,831 |
| 2023 | $46,250 | $54,533 |
| 2024 | $42,550 | $42,484 |
| 2025 | $42,550 | $38,868 |
When the purple line crosses above blue, property owners are being taxed above last-listed market prices. Actual sale prices in a buyer’s market may be even lower.
The Blanco CAD aggressively reappraised during 2021-2023, bumping values 92%. Made sense at the time. The market was hot. But those CAD values froze at 2023 levels while listed transaction prices kept sliding. Johnson City landowners now have solid grounds for a property tax protest, and the comps to back it up.
If you own land in Blanco County and your CAD number is higher than what comparable parcels are listing and closing for, the Texas Comptroller’s property value study gives you a framework to protest. Pull the recent transaction data for your area and make your case.
Why Has the Hill Country Land Market Slowed Down?
We pulled Federal Reserve (FRED) data to figure out why, and one variable towers over everything else: the cost of money.
Mortgage rates went from 2.94% in late 2021 to 6.39% today. That single factor explains 76% of the volume decline. But the real smoking gun is the 10-year Treasury real yield, which flipped from -0.82% to +1.86%. That’s the strongest predictor in our model (r = -0.90). When borrowing costs you nothing after inflation, people buy land. When it costs 2% in real terms, they don’t.
And it’s not like people stopped wanting land. Texas population grew 7% during this period. Employment grew 14.6%. The demand is there. Buyers are locked out by rates, not disinterest.
One thing worth noting: despite all the “money printing” talk, M2 money supply showed no meaningful correlation with land prices (r = 0.32). This is a rate story, not an inflation story. Prices won’t recover until rates come down, and even then, there are years of excess listings to work through.
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What This Means for Landowners
Sellers need to hear this: over two years of inventory means buyers have the leverage right now. Properties priced at 2022 levels are sitting for a year or more. If you need to sell, the fastest path to a closed deal is pricing based on 2025 comparable sales, not your tax appraisal from two years ago. The market has moved. Your pricing should too. If you’re not sure where to start, our step-by-step guide to selling land fast walks through your options.
For buyers, this is the most favorable Hill Country pricing since early 2021. Fredericksburg is down 55% from peak. Johnson City down 48%. Wimberley down 25%. You don’t need to rush, and you’ve got room to negotiate. If you’re looking at ranchettes specifically, our tract-size pricing analysis shows 5-to-10-acre parcels still carry a 2.3x per-acre premium over larger tracts.
If you’re in Johnson City and your CAD appraisal is above market, you’ve got a property tax protest worth filing. Pull the sold comps from the last 12 months and get it done before your county’s deadline.
Whether you inherited the land or bought it years ago, if you’d rather not deal with listing, showings, and months of waiting, Haystack Land Company buys land across Texas. We put this analysis together because we think informed sellers make better decisions, whether they sell to us or not. Want a no-obligation cash offer? Start here.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Hill Country Land Market
Is the Texas Hill Country land market cooling?
It already has. Transaction volume dropped 44.7% from H1 2022 (814 sales) to H2 2025 (450 sales). Our inventory analysis shows over two years of supply on the market, more than four times what a balanced market carries. Nearly half of all active listings have been sitting for 180+ days.
How much has Hill Country land dropped in price?
Depends on the city. Fredericksburg: down 55% from peak. Johnson City: down 48%. Wimberley: down 25%. Meanwhile, Comfort is up 158% and Burnet up 87%. The median across all cities hovers around $30,000 per acre, roughly flat since mid-2022, but individual markets have moved dramatically in both directions.
What’s the inventory level for Hill Country land?
Over two years of supply. We break down the full analysis by price band in Part 3 of this series, where the numbers get worse the higher the asking price.
Which Hill Country cities have dropped the most from their peak?
The cities that attracted the most speculative buying during 2021-2022 are down the hardest. Fredericksburg fell from $65,408/acre to $29,324 (-55%). Johnson City dropped from $74,831 to $38,868 (-48%). Canyon Lake, Wimberley, Dripping Springs, and Leander are all down 20-30% from their respective peaks. The pattern is consistent: the more expensive the starting point, the steeper the correction.
Are CAD appraisals above market value in the Hill Country?
In Johnson City, yes. The Blanco CAD median sits at $42,550/acre while the market (based on 2025 last-listed transaction prices) is $38,868. That’s a 9.5% gap. If your tax bill is based on numbers from the 2022-2023 boom, you may have grounds for a protest. Pull recent sold comps and compare them to your notice.
Sources and Methodology
- Land listings marked as sold, 5-91 acres, 49 cities, February 2021 to February 2026 (5,797 sold transactions; 4,906 with prices, 891 with no price reported; prices reflect last listed price, not verified sale price per Texas non-disclosure law)
- Active land listings as of data pull (2,150 listings)
- County appraisal district records from Blanco, Comal, and Guadalupe counties (281,560 parcels)
- Federal Reserve (FRED) series: MORTGAGE30US, DFII10, TXNA, TXPOP, M2SL
- Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) quarterly reports
- Mike Starks Real Estate, Fredericksburg/Gillespie County market data
All median values use per-acre pricing based on last listed price from listing data, not verified sale prices. Texas is a non-disclosure state, so actual closing prices are not publicly available. Last listed prices are a reasonable proxy but may differ from final transaction amounts, particularly in a soft market where buyers negotiate below asking. City-level data requires minimum three transactions per year for inclusion. Correlations use Pearson r with significance at p < 0.05. Hill Country region defined as: Bandera, Blanco, Boerne, Burnet, Canyon Lake, Comfort, Dripping Springs, Fredericksburg, Johnson City, Lampasas, Leander, Liberty Hill, Mico, Pipe Creek, San Marcos, Spicewood, Spring Branch, and Wimberley.
